Forecast for July-September 2016
Due to frequent heating in allover Pakistan and southern (South western)&western India during last one and half month. Conditions are favorable for upcoming monsoon season.
El Niño is in decaying stage, while La Niña is expected to emerge during Monsoon 2016.
Number of cyclones in Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal was also less normal and no frequent and strong cyclone has developed yet in both areas. This is in favor of strong monsoon.
All the models are in favor of good and strong monsoon.
As it is long range forecast that’s why confidence level for this forecast is 70-80%.
Monsoon 2016 will start at normal time.
Temperatures are expected to settle down from mid of Monsoon season till normal to above normal temperature will prevail in major parts of Pakistan.
During eastern and western interactions heavy to very heavy rains will generate floods in some big cities of Pakistan.
Eastern belt of Punjab from north to south will get good rains during Pre-monsoon and monsoon season with chances of 15-20% above average rains. Some extreme events cannot be ruled out during peak days of Monsoon. Northern Punjab Including Islamabad will also get healthy amounts of rain during monsoon period with possibility of slightly above normal rains. Localized flooding and extreme weather events may occur during late July or in early August. South Punjab and western Punjab will get good rains during late monsoon. There is a high risk of flooding Suleiman ranges and their associated areas. But overall monsoon looks very good for Punjab.
Upper and eastern Sindh will be the wettest part of the Sindh during monsoon 2016. There are good chances for development of low pressure areas. This may cause heavy rains at times very heavy which will produce flood situation there. On the other side due to expected heavy rains in catchment areas of Sindh River, flood situation possible to develop there. Coastal areas will get normal rains with possibility of 5% more than average Including Karachi. Interior and western Sindh will normal too slightly below normal rains during above mentioned period.
Eastern belt associated with Punjab will get above normal rains during above mentioned period. All other parts of Baluchistan will stay normal to slightly below normal. During eastern and western interactions some heavy rains may generate floods over central Baluchistan. Temperatures will turn normal as soon as good rains come to Pakistan. Quetta and other north eastern parts of Baluchistan will receive very good rains in late monsoon season.
Hazara division will be the wettest pert of KPK. Upper KPK Including Peshawar will get normal rains during upcoming season. Some extreme rain events may occur in Hazara and Malakand divisions, which may cause floods of low to mid-level in rivers and localized Nula’s.
All the valleys of KPK will stay pleasant during monsoon 2016. During intermittent rains land sliding risk will be higher in hilly areas.
Very good rains expected in entire Kashmir with 15-20% above normal rains. Therefore, heavy to very heavy rain events will occur some times. All the river catchment areas will experience a stronger monsoon this year.
Gilgit Baltistan may experience odd monsoon because below rains expected there. But due to good rains in valleys of Kashmir of KPK temperature may not increase as like some last years. But during bright sunshine and warm days glacial Lake Outburst (GLOF) may trigger glaciers in these areas. Better rains possible during late monsoon season during arrival of western systems.
During intermittent rains land sliding risk will be higher in hilly areas.
Note: All concerned authorities should stay alert during this rainy season.